Mustafa Durmu\u015f<\/p>\n
28 Shkurt 2021<\/p>\n
Me marsin, ne po hyjm\u00eb n\u00eb vitin e dyt\u00eb t\u00eb shp\u00ebrthimit Covid-19 n\u00eb kontinentin e Evrop\u00ebs. Pjesa e lidhur me sh\u00ebndetin e epidemis\u00eb sh\u00ebnohet nga virusi i mutuar dhe zhvillimet n\u00eb vaksin\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa virusi shnd\u00ebrrohet, efektiviteti i vaksin\u00ebs zvog\u00eblohet. Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, ka pabarazi t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb aksesin ndaj vaksinave si n\u00eb nivel global ashtu edhe n\u00eb at\u00eb komb\u00ebtar. Nd\u00ebrsa vendet e pasura dhe elitat kan\u00eb qasje t\u00eb mir\u00eb n\u00eb vaksinat, vendet e varfra dhe klasat e tyre t\u00eb dob\u00ebta nuk munden.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb pjes\u00ebn ekonomike t\u00eb epidemis\u00eb, nj\u00eb rikuperim i kujdessh\u00ebm parashikohet q\u00eb nga ky vit, me efektin e mb\u00ebshtetjeve t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb (1), i cili p\u00ebrfshin hua dhe mb\u00ebshtetje t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave prej dhjet\u00ebra trilion dollar\u00ebsh n\u00eb total.<\/p>\n
Sidoqoft\u00eb, kjo nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb q\u00eb kapitalizmi po del nga kriza e thell\u00eb ekonomike n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn hyri me Covid-19. P\u00ebr shkak se dinamika e k\u00ebsaj krize ishte e pranishme edhe para shp\u00ebrthimit t\u00eb Covid-19. Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, kjo kriz\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb nga krizat e pashmangshme t\u00eb krijuara nga sistemi kapitalist, sesa nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb e shkaktuar nga epidemia.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb fakt, p\u00ebrpara epidemis\u00eb, balonat u fryn\u00eb n\u00eb tregjet financiare globale. Rreziku i kriz\u00ebs financiare, i shkaktuar nga p\u00ebrfitimi i ul\u00ebt, investimet e ndenjura, paga e mjaftueshme dhe rritja e produktivitetit, l\u00ebvizja drejt recesionit dhe rezervat e borxhit t\u00eb sektorit privat, po imponohej. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, organizata t\u00eb tilla si FMN po t\u00ebrhiqnin vazhdimisht parashikimet e tyre t\u00eb rritjes globale. Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, u zbulua se neo-liberalizmi nuk mund ta kuronte kriz\u00ebn e kapitalizmit dhe filloi t\u00eb humbas\u00eb hegjemonin\u00eb e tij n\u00eb aspektin ideologjik dhe politik.<\/p>\n
GLOBALIZIMI, FINANCIALIZIMI, NEO-LIBERALIZMI<\/p>\n
N\u00eb fakt, kapitalizmi nuk mund t\u00eb rimarr\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithmon\u00eb nga krizat ekonomike q\u00eb ka kaluar p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb. Ai vet\u00ebm (p\u00ebrkoh\u00ebsisht) mund t\u00eb dilte nga ngecja afatgjat\u00eb q\u00eb kishte p\u00ebrjetuar q\u00eb nga mesi i viteve 1970, me globalizimin, financimin, liberalizimin neo-liberal dhe de-rregullimet q\u00eb jan\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtuar q\u00eb nga vitet 1980.<\/p>\n
Ulja e normave t\u00eb fitimit n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e zhvilluara, t\u00eb njohura edhe si Ekonomi Qendrore, mund t\u00eb rritet p\u00ebrs\u00ebri duke zhvendosur industri t\u00eb tilla si automobilat dhe tekstili n\u00eb vendet e pazhvilluara, t\u00eb quajtura gjithashtu Ekonomi Mjedisi, me globalizimin dhe liberalizimin. P\u00ebr shkak se pagat e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve, t\u00eb cilat p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb konsiderueshme t\u00eb kostove t\u00eb prodhimit, ishin rreth nj\u00eb e dhjeta e Ekonomive Qendrore n\u00eb k\u00ebto vende, p\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, organizimi sindikal i pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve ishte shum\u00eb i dob\u00ebt.<\/p>\n
Financimi, nga ana tjet\u00ebr, ka qen\u00eb nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb tjet\u00ebr p\u00ebr t\u00eb kap\u00ebrcyer kriz\u00ebn e fitimit n\u00eb sektorin industrial. Kthimet n\u00eb r\u00ebnie n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb reale u rrit\u00ebn me shpejt\u00ebsi p\u00ebrmes kredive bankare, bursave, letrave me vler\u00eb dhe tregjeve t\u00eb derivateve, shumica e saj fiktive.<\/p>\n
Sidoqoft\u00eb, nj\u00eb financim i till\u00eb neo-liberal hapi gjithashtu rrug\u00ebn p\u00ebr kriza financiare. N\u00eb fakt, kriza financiare, e cila filloi n\u00eb SHBA n\u00eb 2008 dhe shp\u00ebrtheu si rezultat i sigurimit t\u00eb kredive hipotekare, hyri n\u00eb histori si kriza m\u00eb e thell\u00eb pas kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb vitit 1929 (deri n\u00eb Covid-19).<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrsa kjo kriz\u00eb ende nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb rikuperuar plot\u00ebsisht, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa ngecja ekonomike vazhdon n\u00eb shum\u00eb vende t\u00eb bot\u00ebs, k\u00ebsaj here bota \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00ebrhequr n\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb re me shp\u00ebrthimin Covid-19. Efektet ekonomike t\u00eb epidemis\u00eb, t\u00eb cilat erdh\u00ebn me goditje nga ana e ofert\u00ebs dhe nga ana e k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs, trondit\u00ebn thell\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore. K\u00ebshtu, kriza ekonomike q\u00eb u shfaq pas shp\u00ebrthimit t\u00eb Covid-19 mori kriz\u00ebn financiare t\u00eb vitit 2008 nga vendi i dyt\u00eb dhe u vendos n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb vend.<\/p>\n
PANDEMIA COVID-19 KA SHKAKTUAR R\u00cbNIE M\u00cb T\u00cb THELL N\u00cb EKONOMIN BOTRORE<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr shum\u00eb ekonomist\u00eb, kjo kriz\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn po aq e thell\u00eb sa Depresioni i Madh i vitit 1929. Aq sa me epidemin\u00eb, ndodhi r\u00ebnia m\u00eb e shpejt\u00eb e par\u00eb n\u00eb Ekonomit\u00eb Qendrore n\u00eb 100 vitet e fundit. Ishte jo vet\u00ebm tkurrja masive ekonomike ose papun\u00ebsia e madhe n\u00eb rritje, por edhe rritja m\u00eb e shpejt\u00eb n\u00eb 50 vitet e fundit n\u00eb rezervat e borxhit global duke arritur 230 p\u00ebrqind t\u00eb prodhimit bot\u00ebror dhe aksionet e borxhit shtet\u00ebror duke arritur n\u00eb 83 p\u00ebrqind para shp\u00ebrthimit Covid-19. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, ajo u quajt “vala e kat\u00ebrt globale e borxhit”.<\/p>\n
Covid-19 e b\u00ebri k\u00ebt\u00eb val\u00eb edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe. Sepse vet\u00ebm n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit 2020, borxhi i qeveris\u00eb globale pritet t\u00eb rritet me m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 19 p\u00ebrqind krahasuar me nj\u00eb vit m\u00eb par\u00eb, nga 83 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb 99 p\u00ebrqind t\u00eb produktit bot\u00ebror. (2) P\u00ebrve\u00e7 borxhit qeveritar, rritja m\u00eb e shpejt\u00eb e rezervat e borxhit jan\u00eb n\u00eb sektorin privat borxhi (borxhet e kompanis\u00eb) doli t\u00eb jet\u00eb duke ndodhur.<\/p>\n
TREGTIA GLOBALE ZBREHET N\u00cb 10% ND\u00cbRSA INVESTIMET N\u00cb 42%<\/p>\n
Vler\u00ebsohet se tkurrja n\u00eb v\u00ebllimin e tregtis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore n\u00eb vitin 2020 ishte 9.6 p\u00ebrqind. (3) Investimet e huaja direkte, nga ana tjet\u00ebr, p\u00ebsuan nj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasje t\u00eb plot\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2020, duke r\u00ebn\u00eb nga 1.5 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb 859 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb me nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie prej 42 p\u00ebrqind. Kjo r\u00ebnie \u00ebsht\u00eb 30 p\u00ebrqind m\u00eb shum\u00eb se r\u00ebnia pas kriz\u00ebs financiare t\u00eb vitit 2008. Nd\u00ebrsa ulja kryesore e k\u00ebtyre investimeve ishte n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e zhvilluara (69 p\u00ebrqind), r\u00ebnia n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e pazhvilluara ishte e kufizuar n\u00eb 12 p\u00ebrqind. Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, fakti q\u00eb 72 p\u00ebrqind e k\u00ebtyre investimeve jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb midis ekonomive t\u00eb zhvilluara me nj\u00eb kulm historik (4) \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb tregues q\u00eb investitor\u00ebt nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb kryesisht k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb porte t\u00eb sigurta.<\/p>\n
EKONOMIA BOTRORE e Dimensionuar -3,5 p\u00ebrqind, 114 milion pun\u00eb t\u00eb reja t\u00eb papun\u00eb, numri i mbrojtjeve q\u00eb rritet nga 272 milion<\/p>\n
Calculatedsht\u00eb llogaritur q\u00eb tkurrja n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore n\u00eb vitin 2020 \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb rastin m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb 3.5 p\u00ebr qind. N\u00eb fakt, ekonomit\u00eb e zhvilluara jan\u00eb n\u00eb -4.9 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb vitin 2020; ekonomit\u00eb n\u00eb zhvillim dhe ekonomit\u00eb e pazhvilluara -2.4 p\u00ebrqind; SHBA -3,4 p\u00ebrqind; Eurozona -7.2 p\u00ebrqind; India u tkurr me -8.0 p\u00ebrqind, 2.3 p\u00ebrqind dhe vet\u00ebm Kina Turqia mund t\u00eb rritet vet\u00ebm me 1.2% p\u00ebrqind. (5)<\/p>\n
Kjo ka rezultuar n\u00eb zgjerimin e m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm t\u00eb pabarazive ekzistuese sociale, sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore dhe ekonomike. Aq sa, sipas ILO-s, humbjet e pun\u00ebsimit arrit\u00ebn n\u00eb 114 milion, nd\u00ebrsa grat\u00eb, zezak\u00ebt, autokton\u00ebt, emigrant\u00ebt dhe personat me aft\u00ebsi t\u00eb kufizuara u prek\u00ebn n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb disproporcionale, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb keq. Sipas Programit Bot\u00ebror t\u00eb Ushqimit, rritja e numrit t\u00eb njer\u00ebzve q\u00eb p\u00ebrjetojn\u00eb pamjaftueshm\u00ebri ushqimore dhe pasiguri ishte 272 milion (n\u00eb 2019, ky num\u00ebr ishte 149 milion). Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, pasurit\u00eb e 500 miliarderit m\u00eb t\u00eb pasur n\u00eb bot\u00eb u rrit\u00ebn me nj\u00eb total prej 5 p\u00ebrqind. (6)<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb tipar tjet\u00ebr i kriz\u00ebs ekonomike t\u00eb thelluar nga Shp\u00ebrthimi Covid-19 ishte se ajo nuk ishte m\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb e par\u00eb n\u00eb form\u00ebn e cikleve pes\u00eb-shtat\u00eb-vje\u00e7are dhe u b\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb sistematike. Prandaj, efekti tret\u00ebs i politikave tradicionale monetare dhe fiskale ekspansioniste kund\u00ebr nj\u00eb krize t\u00eb till\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb ishte aq i fort\u00eb sa pritej. P\u00ebrve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj, bota tani ishte n\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb krizash t\u00eb shumta. Kjo filloi t\u00eb manifestohej n\u00eb form\u00ebn e krizave ekonomike, krizave t\u00eb demokracis\u00eb liberale, t\u00eb cilat u shfaq\u00ebn n\u00eb form\u00ebn e autoritarizmit q\u00eb u rrit me Pandemin\u00eb, dhe krizat ekologjike t\u00eb tilla si shkat\u00ebrrimi i klim\u00ebs ose ndryshimi.<\/p>\n
Pritja e ‘rritjes mbrojt\u00ebse-p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuese’ n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb globale n\u00eb 2021-2022<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrsa organizatat financiare nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare thon\u00eb se 2020 \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb vit i v\u00ebrtet\u00eb humbjesh, ata shpresojn\u00eb (megjith\u00ebse me kujdes) q\u00eb 2021 dhe 2022 do t\u00eb jen\u00eb vite t\u00eb rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbjes.
\nP\u00ebr shembull, sipas OECD, megjith\u00ebse rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbja ekonomike do t\u00eb zhvillohet n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pabarabart\u00eb dhe t\u00eb pabarabart\u00eb, ekonomia bot\u00ebrore do t\u00eb rritet me 4.25 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb 2021 dhe 3.75 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb 2022. (7) Sidoqoft\u00eb, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb mutacioneve n\u00eb virusin Covid-19, ekonomit\u00eb mund t\u00eb mbyllen p\u00ebrs\u00ebri. Kjo gjithashtu mund t\u00eb parandaloj\u00eb rritjen. Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, n\u00eb \u00e7do rast, deri n\u00eb vitin 2022, prodhimi bot\u00ebror do t\u00eb jet\u00eb 5 p\u00ebrqind prapa nivelit para-epidemis\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb raportin e Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore (8), ekonomia globale do t\u00eb rritet me nj\u00eb norm\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt rritjeje gjat\u00eb 10 viteve t\u00eb ardhshme; Theksohet se fitimet n\u00eb lidhje me varf\u00ebrin\u00eb do t\u00eb zhduken, rritja e t\u00eb ardhurave p\u00ebr frym\u00eb do t\u00eb shkrihet dhe rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbja n\u00eb investime me Covid-19 do t\u00eb jet\u00eb shum\u00eb e dob\u00ebt dhe rreziku i nj\u00eb krize serioze t\u00eb borxhit bot\u00ebror do t\u00eb rritet p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb rritjeve n\u00eb rezervat e borxhit.<\/p>\n
BANKA BOTRORE: SUKSESI I FITUAR N\u00cb LUFT\u00cbN KUND\u00cbR VARF\u00cbRIS do zhduket<\/p>\n
Sipas raportit; N\u00ebse Covid-19 vihet n\u00ebn kontroll, n\u00ebse shp\u00ebrndarja e vaksin\u00ebs b\u00ebhet n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb efektive, ekonomia bot\u00ebrore mund t\u00eb rritet me 4% n\u00eb 2021, nd\u00ebrsa ekonomia bot\u00ebrore tkurret me -4,3% n\u00eb 2020. Sipas skenarit m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb, t\u00eb ardhurat e vitit 2021 do t\u00eb jen\u00eb 5.3 p\u00ebrqind n\u00ebn nivelin e prodhimit para-epidemis\u00eb. Kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb nj\u00eb humbje prej 4.7 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb globalisht. N\u00ebse Pandemia \u00ebsht\u00eb e pakontrollueshme, ekonomia mund t\u00eb rritet me vet\u00ebm 1.6 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb 2021. Po k\u00ebshtu, n\u00ebse rritjet e rezervave t\u00eb borxhit kthehen n\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb financiare, ekonomia bot\u00ebrore do t\u00eb tkurret n\u00eb 2021.<\/p>\n
Raporti gjithashtu thekson q\u00eb Epidemia shkakton humbje t\u00eb prodhimit n\u00eb 90 p\u00ebrqind t\u00eb ekonomive n\u00eb zhvillim dhe se fitimet 10-vje\u00e7are p\u00ebr frym\u00eb humbasin n\u00eb nj\u00eb t\u00eb kat\u00ebrt\u00ebn e k\u00ebtyre vendeve.<\/p>\n
Sipas FMN, e cila pohon se ekonomia globale p\u00ebrjetoi tkurrjen m\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb t\u00eb periudhave t\u00eb paqes pas Depresionit t\u00eb Madh n\u00eb 2020, por q\u00eb ekonomia bot\u00ebrore do t\u00eb filloj\u00eb t\u00eb rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbet n\u00eb 2021 dhe 2022; ekonomia bot\u00ebrore n\u00eb k\u00ebto dy vjet: p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht 5.5 p\u00ebrqind dhe 4.2 p\u00ebrqind; Ekonomit\u00eb e zhvilluara do t\u00eb rriten me 4.3 p\u00ebrqind dhe 3.1 p\u00ebrqind, dhe ekonomit\u00eb e pazhvilluara dhe ato n\u00eb zhvillim do t\u00eb rriten me 6.3 p\u00ebrqind dhe 5.0 p\u00ebrqind. (9)<\/p>\n
Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin raport; Theksohet gjithashtu se n\u00eb vitin 2021, e ardhura komb\u00ebtare p\u00ebr frym\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 150 vende do t\u00eb mbetet n\u00ebn nivelin e 2019, ky num\u00ebr mund t\u00eb ulet n\u00eb 110 n\u00eb 2022, por nj\u00eb humbje totale e t\u00eb ardhurave prej 22 trilion dollar\u00ebsh do t\u00eb p\u00ebrjetohet midis 2020-2025 (krahasuar me para-epidemin\u00eb).<\/p>\n
Bazuar n\u00eb k\u00ebto raporte, \u00ebsht\u00eb e mundur t\u00eb b\u00ebhen vler\u00ebsimet e m\u00ebposhtme:<\/p>\n
Periudha (2009-2019) ishte periudha m\u00eb e gjat\u00eb e zgjerimit q\u00eb nga viti 1945 p\u00ebr Ekonomit\u00eb Qendrore si dhe p\u00ebr disa Ekonomi n\u00eb Zhvillim si Brazili dhe Rusia. Sidoqoft\u00eb, kjo periudh\u00eb gjithashtu p\u00ebrjetoi norm\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebt t\u00eb rritjes ekonomike (mesatarja globale 2 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb vit), me investimet reale n\u00eb stagnim. Kjo ishte nj\u00eb shenj\u00eb se ekonomit\u00eb do t\u00eb bien kur i afrohemi vitit 2020. Covid-19 shkat\u00ebrroi t\u00eb gjitha parashikimet ekonomike. P\u00ebr shkak se 93 p\u00ebrqind e ekonomive p\u00ebrjetuan nj\u00eb tkurrje serioze p\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket PBB-s\u00eb, pun\u00ebsimit, investimeve dhe tregtis\u00eb s\u00eb jashtme.<\/p>\n
Prandaj, \u00ebsht\u00eb e natyrshme t\u00eb pres\u00ebsh nj\u00eb dalje nga 2021. Sidoqoft\u00eb, kjo ngjitje nuk do t\u00eb jet\u00eb aq e lart\u00eb sa t\u00eb kompensoj\u00eb zbritjen e mpreht\u00eb. Si\u00e7 theksojn\u00eb raportet, nivelet e prodhimit komb\u00ebtar (megjith\u00eb prodhimin) do t\u00eb mbeten 5 p\u00ebr qind n\u00ebn nivelin para-Epidemis\u00eb, megjith\u00ebse disa ekonomi t\u00eb tilla si G7 sh\u00ebrohen m\u00eb shpejt p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb qasjes n\u00eb vaksin\u00eb, n\u00eb t\u00eb tjerat ky rikuperim do t\u00eb jet\u00eb shum\u00eb i dob\u00ebt ose do t\u00eb marr\u00eb m\u00eb gjat\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Ky rikuperim; Nuk do t\u00eb ket\u00eb rikuperim t\u00eb tipit “V”, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb nj\u00eb ngritje t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb n\u00eb nivelin e vjet\u00ebr. N\u00eb fakt, organizata t\u00eb tilla si FMN, OECD dhe BB n\u00ebnvizojn\u00eb se pavar\u00ebsisht rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbjes, nuk do t\u00eb ket\u00eb kthim t\u00eb plot\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb vjetr\u00ebn, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn deri n\u00eb 2022.<\/p>\n
Nuk do t\u00eb jet\u00eb e mundur t\u00eb shihen modelet e rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbjes s\u00eb tipit V, W, Z, U, L t\u00eb b\u00ebra nga ekonomist\u00ebt deri m\u00eb tani, ndoshta do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb rikuperim t\u00eb tipit K.<\/p>\n
Aq sa kompanit\u00eb e teknologjis\u00eb, kompanit\u00eb e m\u00ebdha t\u00eb kapitalit q\u00eb p\u00ebrfitojn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb nga mb\u00ebshtetja e shtetit dhe pronar\u00ebt e profesioneve t\u00eb p\u00ebrshtatshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb punuar nga sht\u00ebpia po sh\u00ebrohen shum\u00eb m\u00eb shpejt, nd\u00ebrmarrjet e vogla dhe t\u00eb mesme (t\u00eb tilla si sektori i arg\u00ebtimit dhe turizmit), jak\u00eb blu pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt dhe klasa e mesme q\u00eb preken m\u00eb shum\u00eb nga shp\u00ebrthimi jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira dhe ata do t\u00eb kthehen s\u00eb bashku m\u00eb von\u00eb. Sidoqoft\u00eb, ky rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbje nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se ata mund t\u00eb rikthejn\u00eb prosperitetin e tyre t\u00eb m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
Dh\u00ebnia e m\u00eb shum\u00eb subvencioneve shtet\u00ebrore p\u00ebr sektor\u00eb t\u00eb caktuar dhe grupe t\u00eb caktuara kapitali do t\u00eb rris\u00eb pabarazit\u00eb aktuale, nd\u00ebrsa kjo do t\u00eb ul\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn totale, do t\u00eb rris\u00eb m\u00eb tej papun\u00ebsin\u00eb dhe borxhin e sektorit privat.
\nBorxhi publik do t\u00eb rritet edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb shp\u00ebtimeve t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrjeve. Me pak fjal\u00eb, rikuperimi do t\u00eb jet\u00eb i dob\u00ebt dhe i pabarabart\u00eb.<\/p>\n
(i) Mbylljet p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb shp\u00ebrthimit kan\u00eb prekur ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht bizneset n\u00eb sektorin e sh\u00ebrbimeve. Pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt mbet\u00ebn pa pun\u00eb dhe t\u00eb ardhura. Shumica e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve nuk do t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb kthehen n\u00eb pun\u00ebt e tyre t\u00eb vjetra. Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, goditjet an\u00ebsore dhe t\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs vazhdojn\u00eb. Prandaj, do t\u00eb jet\u00eb shum\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr klasat shoq\u00ebrore me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb ul\u00ebta t\u00eb rrisin k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn agregate p\u00ebrmes shpenzimeve t\u00eb konsumit privat.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb fakt, raportet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare zbulojn\u00eb efektet e Covid-19 n\u00eb pagat e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve. P\u00ebr shembull, sipas nj\u00eb studimi t\u00eb kryer nga ILO; N\u00eb vendet evropiane, Shp\u00ebrthimi i Covid-19 shkaktoi nj\u00eb humbje prej af\u00ebrsisht 6.5 p\u00ebrqind t\u00eb pagave mesatare reale t\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve n\u00eb tremujorin e dyt\u00eb (Prill-Qershor) (grat\u00eb humb\u00ebn m\u00eb shum\u00eb se burrat). Kjo ishte p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb pushimeve nga puna dhe zvog\u00eblimit t\u00eb or\u00ebve t\u00eb pun\u00ebs. N\u00eb fillim t\u00eb vendeve me humbjet m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb pagave, me nj\u00eb norm\u00eb q\u00eb tejkalon 10 p\u00ebrqind; Irlanda, Portugalia dhe Spanja po vijn\u00eb. N\u00eb vende t\u00eb tilla si Hollanda dhe Suedia, k\u00ebto humbje mbet\u00ebn n\u00ebn 3 p\u00ebrqind. (10)<\/p>\n
DISC-R (11) 20 p\u00ebrqind m\u00eb shum\u00eb se paga minimale n\u00eb Turqi dhe n\u00ebn at\u00eb tarif\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb numri i 9.7 milion pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve, t\u00eb gjith\u00eb t\u00eb pun\u00ebsuarit jan\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e af\u00ebr 50 p\u00ebrqind dhe se Covidien-19 p\u00ebsoi humbje t\u00eb konsiderueshme n\u00eb pagat me shp\u00ebrthimin ndodhi q\u00eb, Ai argumenton se k\u00ebshtu u rrit numri i njer\u00ebzve q\u00eb fitojn\u00eb n\u00ebn pag\u00ebn minimale.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb fakt, ata q\u00eb u mor\u00ebn me leje t\u00eb detyrueshme t\u00eb papaguar vitin e kaluar me nj\u00eb ndihm\u00eb prej 1,168 lira u d\u00ebnuan t\u00eb jetonin me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb barabarta me gjysm\u00ebn e pag\u00ebs minimale. P\u00ebrfshir\u00eb ata q\u00eb duhet t\u00eb jetojn\u00eb me ndihma pune p\u00ebr koh\u00eb t\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr dhe pun\u00ebtor\u00eb t\u00eb paregjistruar q\u00eb kan\u00eb humbur pun\u00ebn, \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb se numri i njer\u00ebzve q\u00eb fitojn\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura n\u00ebn pag\u00ebn minimale \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb i lart\u00eb. Kjo mjafton p\u00ebr t\u00eb treguar efektin zvog\u00eblues t\u00eb zvog\u00eblimit t\u00eb konsumit t\u00eb masave pun\u00ebtore n\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn totale efektive. Duket shum\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr kredit\u00eb bankare ta mbyllin k\u00ebt\u00eb hendek me normat aktuale (t\u00eb larta) t\u00eb interesit.<\/p>\n
Prania e nd\u00ebrmarrjeve zombie e b\u00ebn at\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb rimarr\u00eb<\/p>\n
(ii) Borxhi i kompanive zombie n\u00eb ve\u00e7anti \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur shum\u00eb i lart\u00eb, gj\u00eb q\u00eb do t’i parandaloj\u00eb ata t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb investime t\u00eb reja, megjith\u00ebse ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb rikuperim i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, ata q\u00eb nuk mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitojn\u00eb nga mb\u00ebshtetja e till\u00eb si kredia e lir\u00eb e siguruar nga qeveria nuk do t\u00eb fillojn\u00eb investime t\u00eb reja, nd\u00ebrsa kompanit\u00eb e m\u00ebdha q\u00eb marrin mb\u00ebshtetjen do t\u00eb rrisin iniciativat e tyre spekulative (t\u00eb tilla si blerja e aksioneve t\u00eb tyre n\u00eb tregjet e aksioneve) p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur fitimet e tyre.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb literatur\u00eb, “kompanit\u00eb e zombies” t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuara si kompani q\u00eb nuk mund t\u00eb paguajn\u00eb as interesin e borxheve t\u00eb tyre me fitimet e tyre p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb duhet t\u00eb marrin p\u00ebrs\u00ebri hua p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbijetuar. Numri i tyre \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur me shpejt\u00ebsi q\u00eb nga vitet 1980. Aq m\u00eb shum\u00eb q\u00eb nd\u00ebrsa p\u00ebrqindja e kompanive t\u00eb tilla n\u00eb gjithsej nd\u00ebrmarrjet ishte 4 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb 1980, kjo norm\u00eb u rrit n\u00eb 15 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb 2017. Nd\u00ebrsa zombifikimi (sidomos pas Epidemis\u00eb s\u00eb Koron\u00ebs) \u00ebsht\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb shum\u00eb sektor\u00eb, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb sektorin e linjave ajrore dhe transportin e udh\u00ebtar\u00ebve luksoz\u00eb, ky fenomen nuk u kufizua n\u00eb SH.B.A. Ajo u p\u00ebrhap n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn nga Italia n\u00eb Gjermani, India n\u00eb Koren\u00eb e Jugut dhe Kin\u00eb. Nj\u00eb nga \u00e7do pes\u00eb kompani t\u00eb listuara n\u00eb bursat n\u00eb SHBA \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb kompani mumje, dhe numri i kompanive t\u00eb zombies \u00ebsht\u00eb dyfishuar q\u00eb nga viti 2013. (12)<\/p>\n
zombile\u015f p\u00ebr nj\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje faktike dhe nuk mund t\u00eb n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsohet n\u00eb Turqi. Rritja e kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit dhe e normave t\u00eb interesit e b\u00ebn pun\u00ebn e sektorit real edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb.
\nTopsht\u00eb marr\u00eb n\u00eb konsiderat\u00eb “Top 500 Industriale 50 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb borxhit t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm t\u00eb organizat\u00ebs (dhe kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb ajo ku korrespondon me 73.6 p\u00ebrqind t\u00eb gjithsej kredive)” (13) t\u00eb vendosura n\u00eb dhe \/ ose kompanit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb interesit normat mund t\u00eb zombile\u015ftir Mund t\u00eb parashikohet gjithashtu q\u00eb t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb mundshme bankare.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebto zhvillime n\u00eb bot\u00eb mbajn\u00eb gjall\u00eb falimentimet e korporatave, nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb e borxhit t\u00eb korporatave q\u00eb do t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb financiare. Aq sa S&P njoftoi se n\u00eb tremujorin e dyt\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2020, borxhi i 88 nd\u00ebrmarrjeve t\u00eb m\u00ebdha ishte n\u00eb nivelin e plehrave. Ky num\u00ebr \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i larti q\u00eb nga kriza financiare e vitit 2008. Miliona kompani t\u00eb vogla falimentuan. (14)<\/p>\n
REINHART: Ka nj\u00eb rrezik serioz global t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb borxhit!<\/p>\n
Sipas Reinhart, kryekonomist i Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore, ekziston nj\u00eb nivel borxhi q\u00eb nuk u p\u00ebrjetua as n\u00eb vitet 1930. Aq sa pjesa e borxheve jo-financiare t\u00eb korporatave n\u00eb 30 ekonomit\u00eb kryesore n\u00eb zhvillim u rrit n\u00eb 96 p\u00ebrqind (n\u00eb tremujorin e par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2020). Kjo norm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb 94 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e zhvilluara. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, 2021 dhe 2022 jan\u00eb vitet kur maturimi i borxhit t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj ekonomie do t\u00eb skadoj\u00eb. Do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb shlyerje borxhi prej 280 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb 2021 dhe 330 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb 2022. Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, Ekonomit\u00eb n\u00eb Zhvillim dhe ekonomit\u00eb e pazhvilluara q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb n\u00eb prag t\u00eb nj\u00eb krize serioze borxhi. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, \u00ebsht\u00eb e nevojshme t\u00eb mos shtr\u00ebngohen m\u00eb k\u00ebto vende. (15)<\/p>\n
(iii) Normat e fitimit vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb bien. Kjo, e trash\u00ebguar, \u00ebsht\u00eb paralajm\u00ebruese e nj\u00eb krize afatgjat\u00eb. Pra, n\u00ebse normat e fitimit nuk rriten n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb dramatike n\u00eb vitet e ardhshme, rritja e investimeve do t\u00eb jet\u00eb shum\u00eb e dob\u00ebt dhe rritja ekonomike do t\u00eb jet\u00eb shum\u00eb e dob\u00ebt si rezultat. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, n\u00ebse normat e interesit rriten p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb frik\u00ebs nga inflacioni (e cila \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb e mundshme), kolapsi i kompanive mumje do t\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtohet, gj\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb financiare q\u00eb do t’i \u00e7oj\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb n\u00eb kriz\u00eb bankare.<\/p>\n
SHENIME TE POSHTME:<\/p>\n
(1) https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/\u2026\/could-we-cure-disease-with-tr\u2026 (28 Janar 2021).
\n(2) Banka Bot\u00ebrore, Prospektivat Ekonomike Globale Janar 2021, f. 12-13.
\n(3) FMN; Azhurnimi i Pamjes Ekonomike Bot\u00ebrore Janar 2021, f. 4
\n(4) UNCTAD, Monitori i Trendit t\u00eb Investimeve (24 Janar 2021), \u00c7\u00ebshtja 21.
\n(5) FMN, agr.
\n(6) https:\/\/wid.world\/news-article\/newsletter-feb April-2021 (12 Shkurt 2021).
\n(7) Parashikimi Ekonomik i OECD Dhjetor 2020.
\n(8) Banka Bot\u00ebrore, agr.
\n(9) FMN, agr., P. 4
\n(10) Organizata Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare e Pun\u00ebs (ILO), Raporti i Pag\u00ebs Globale 2020-2021-Pagat dhe pagat minimale n\u00eb koh\u00ebn e Covid-19, 2020, f. 46.
\n(11) D\u0130SK-AR, “Realiteti i K\u00ebrkimit t\u00eb Pag\u00ebs Minimale n\u00eb Dit\u00ebt Epidemike (2021)”, http:\/\/arastirma.disk.org.tr (7 Dhjetor20209).
\n(12) David J. Lynch, “K\u00ebtu \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe nj\u00eb problem ekonomik q\u00eb ka l\u00ebshuar reagimi i qeveris\u00eb ndaj virusit: Firmat Zombie”, https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com (23 Qershor 2020).
\n(13) Vahap Munyar, “500 Big ka 50 miliard dollar\u00eb borxh t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm”, \u200b\u200bhttps:\/\/www.dunya.com (17 korrik 2020).
\n(14) Robin Wigglesworth, “Trash\u00ebgimia e fllusk\u00ebs s\u00eb borxhit t\u00eb ekonomist\u00ebve Modigliani dhe Miller”, https:\/\/www.ft.com (18 Tetor 2020).
\n(15) Michael Roberts, “Fatkeq\u00ebsia e borxhit pa shp\u00ebtim”, https:\/\/thenextrecession.wordpress.com (12 tetor 2020).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Mustafa Durmu\u015f 28 Shkurt 2021 Me marsin, ne po hyjm\u00eb n\u00eb vitin e dyt\u00eb t\u00eb shp\u00ebrthimit Covid-19 n\u00eb kontinentin e Evrop\u00ebs. Pjesa e lidhur me sh\u00ebndetin e epidemis\u00eb sh\u00ebnohet nga virusi i mutuar dhe zhvillimet n\u00eb vaksin\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa virusi shnd\u00ebrrohet, efektiviteti i vaksin\u00ebs zvog\u00eblohet. Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, ka pabarazi t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb aksesin ndaj vaksinave […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,16,17],"tags":[31,32],"class_list":["post-351","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bota","category-finance","category-kontabilitet","tag-covid19","tag-paper"],"featured_image_src":{"landsacpe":["https:\/\/alfas-ks.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/blog-1.jpg",750,371,false],"list":["https:\/\/alfas-ks.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/blog-1-463x348.jpg",463,348,true],"medium":["https:\/\/alfas-ks.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/blog-1-300x148.jpg",300,148,true],"full":["https:\/\/alfas-ks.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/blog-1.jpg",750,371,false]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/alfas-ks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/351","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/alfas-ks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/alfas-ks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alfas-ks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alfas-ks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=351"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/alfas-ks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/351\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":714,"href":"https:\/\/alfas-ks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/351\/revisions\/714"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alfas-ks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/alfas-ks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=351"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alfas-ks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=351"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alfas-ks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=351"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}